BJP and INC(Rahul Gandhi) are real winner

BJP in long term and Rahul Gandhi in short term are the winner of recently concluded assembly polls in 5 states.

Rahul Gandhi has an existential crisis in politics, he went on choosing a safe heaven as Wayanad in last general election, but was defeated in his family bason Amethi by Smriti Jubin Irani. So, for the following past two years, his working ground is Wayanad and more over Kerala as a state. Despite that his party was unsuccessful in defeating Vijayan led LDF government, the incumbent. This is first time in last 30 years that people of Kerala has chosen same party for the two consecutive terms. Party lost each of it's seat to TMC and BJP in WB, failed to retain Pudduchery, which is not a shocking result for any concerned political pundits. But in a group called UPA, or should be rightly called anti-BJP group, there are mainly three contenders and mostly four, Rahul, Mamata, Sharad Pawar and Mayawati. Out of these, no three can agree on a single name among them, although remotely possible. But practically, Mamata would rather prefer for Rahul than on Sharad or Mayawati either. And since Mamata can hardly get her out of CM of WB because of possible horse trading of TMC MLAs in future by BJP. She also has to depend on INC administered states when this poaching process will begin, most probably on Jharkhand, where INC is stong ally in government. Mamata has to keep a strong eye on her MLAs, because BJP has many positives in it's hand when it comes to horse trading. BJP has many influencial leaders, who were earlier with TMC, one of them has defeated Mamata in close fight. BJP also has two states adjacent to WB, are Assam and Bihar, or Tripura in extent case. So, anyhow Mamata will have to depend on INC for the next 5 years. This would made her tilt towards Rahul Gandhi. Also INC is ally with DMK and has improved it's tally from 8 to 18 in Tamilnadu, so it will help Rahul in shaping national senerio.

INC has also increased it's tally from 26 to 50 in Assam. But that may be normalized by BJP in future, specially when there is Hemant Vishwa Sharma. But for the time being, it will help INC and moreover Rahul Gandhi, when they will come on bargaining table with anti-BJP faction. 

Left has limited itself to Kerala only, there is hardly any possiblity that they would plan anything other than Rahul Gandhi on national stage. Moreover, RJD of Bihar and JMM of Jharkhand have default choice as Rahul when it comes to national poltics. INC is still absolute major player in state like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab and leadership over these state are more or less loyal to Gandhi Family. INC is also major player out of anti-BJP faction in those states where BJP is ruling, like Karnataka, MP, Gujarat.

The most crucial state, UP, there is a good probability that INC will make it's road under Priyanka Gandhi, or atleast it will have something shared strength among anti-BJP faction, as it has right now in Bihar. If INC performs relatively good in coming UP assembly election and retains Punjab then acceptance of Rahul Gandhi will further increase, and that will help in even long term too. But in short term every anti-BJP chunk has to accept Rahul Gandhi as their main national player.

When it comes to BJP. The party has not only improved it's tally by multiple fold in WB and Tamilnadu when compared to previous assembly election, but also going to be the part government in Pudduchery, which is indeed historical event after independence.

BJP not only ratained Assam but also increaseed it's vote share by nearly 3 percent, despite most of effort of it's national brass was on WB. It clearly shows that people are not only happy with BJP in Assam but they are hopeful towards it for the preservance of cultural identity, which has been always a core issue among ethnic Assamese people.

BJP has not only improved it's vote share in 4 out of 5 states, but it also gone in double digit vote percentage for the first time in assembly poll of WB(from 9.19% to 38%) Pudduchery(from 2.13 to 13%) and Kerala(from 6% to 15%).  This is indeed remarkable, isn't it?

BJP has such swing in preferably non-hindi states. Such increase in vote share of BJP, despite alleged mismanagement of Chinese Virus, shows exactly what many people never want to believe on, that charge of mismanagement of Corona is dubious which doesn't hold any water in the eyes of common people. Further, BJP is successful in convincing more people that nationalism is a way ahead for India.

Although, one should acknowledge that the pandemic must have some negative effect on strategy of BJP in various state and so for all the parties, but more for BJP because it already had weak presence in these state.

Tamilnadu definitely has not shown any significant change in support of BJP. Although, BJP managed to get 4 seats, three more than previous tally, but no significant change in vote share, actually it went down from 2.86% to 2.63%.

Left is actually a loser out of all because they have no strength out of Kerala now. Not trespassing limited presence in Bihar. Mamta, ofcourse a winner but she will face more difficulty to run WB now and will be hard to sustain for the next 5 years.

People of Tamilnadu simply went on to turn around with only available option. And present DMK, who hopes to form government there, has hardly any say out of Tamilnadu, but still winner. But current politics in state will anyway favour INC on national stage. So in short term, result is good for INC. 

Note - I have not done even 1 percent of what I used to do before this election, in terms to writing, data analysis or my foot on ground. My prediction gone wrong for the first time after Chhattisgarh assembly election. So, the above written analysis is way superficial and if still it helps you then kudos to me.